סמינר בשיווק

Bias and Illusion in Causal Reasoning: Explanation Fiends and Foes

Steven Sloman from Brown University​

11 ביוני 2013, 14:00 
בניין רקנאטי ,חדר 304 
סמינר בשיווק
A promising normative framework for causal reasoning, developed largely by philosophers and
computer scientists, has become popular in the form of Causal Bayesian Networks. I show a couple of
limitations of the framework for modeling human judgment. First, people tend to neglect alternative
causes when reasoning predictively but not diagnostically. A consequence is that people treat weak
positive evidence as negative. Second, people typically know less about causal system than they think
they do (the illusion of explanatory depth; Rozenblit & Keil, 2002). I report studies showing this is true
in politics as well and that shattering the illusion leads to more moderate attitudes and can reduce
donations to relevant political advocacy groups. The illusion is not present in those who score well on
the Cognitive Reflection Test.
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